Wednesday, August 18, 2010

1100 becomes solid resistance for SPX index



Both yesterday and today, SPX index tested 1100 level and didn't manage to break above it. Through the daily chart, we can see that from June the 1100 has been tested 6 times and 4 times it failed. I highlighted the failed test in yellow. The beauty of the chart is that if it can't break above it on the second try, it trends down on the following days. More important, a Harami was formed today, which is a reversal Japanese candlestick pattern. Given the importance of 1100 level mentioned above, the reversal bearish sentiment may gain momentum tomorrow.

I also plotted the parabolic SAR indicator on the chart, which is highlighted in blue. This indicator gives signal when price crosses below or above it. As is shown in the chart with the green arrow, when price closes below the parabolic SAR, a sell signal was triggered. The uptrend parabolic SAR comes to an end and starts a new one with downtrend. A sell signal was triggered 6 days ago and now it bounced back to test 1100. I think it is a a-b-c correction, and b is likely ending today.

A trader from a big bank informed me that within the last10 minutes of today's trading, someone sold $450M call options. Might be smart money front running some news. Looks like a double top in the intraday chart. Above all, sell the market if tomorrow gaps down.

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